all 10 comments

[–]IMissPorn 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Donno. Waiting on seeing how getting us back to the moon goes. That's a far easier task so if he can't pull that off, forget Mars, but if the moon mission works out, I guess there's a chance.

[–]Alienhunter 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

No. Elon Musk is entirely a marketing guy. He's good at marketing big ideas and getting the scientifically illiterate to jump on board. He's very good at giving convincing sounding answers that will sway an otherwise uninformed listener compare to date more boring and dry technical answers.

We need only look at his constantly shifting timeline for reaching mars and building the colony. Dates come and go, it's similar to any apocalypse cult. Jesus is coming by 2011? Ok. Where is he? Oh shit missed the date? Oh well he'll come six months later. Oh shit missed that date too, where's the cult leader gone with all the donations.

He says some shit like he's going to send 10 million people to Mars by like 2030 or something? People believe him. But like, anyone with a rudimentary understanding of orbital mechanics knows you can't just go to Mars whenever, you gotta wait for the planets to "align" and get your launch window (or else it takes considerably longer and costs a fuck ton more) and that only happens about once every 18 months. How many people can you fit on a rocket? Musk's rocket is supposed to fit 100 people. But the best orbital flights we've managed so far only have about a dozen I think.

And to go all the way to Mars you'll need tons of supplies as well which further increases the mass you need per person and makes the whole thing harder. But like, let's assume that 100 people flights are even possible. And let's assume it's back in 2020 when he said shit like the 10,000,000 people on mars.

How many flights will you need to send that many to Mars? A hundred thousand. How many manned flights to Mars have we managed so far? Zero. And like if you're going to do that in a decade you only have about 5 launch windows in that time. Can we scale up and send 20,000 flights to Mars every two years when we can't even manage one right now?

Elon Musk's plans are all pipe dreams. He's making his money elsewhere. There's no profit to be found on Mars. Maybe he'll manage to send a manned flights there eventually. But his long term plans as stated are rediculous to the point of being totally unfeasible.

I think Musk's business model is to trick stupid people into giving him money. Simple as that. Stupid people vote more stupid people into positions of authority. Musk comes along and convinces them to give him money for some pie in the sky project that won't ever pan out. It doesn't pan out, but the money is "gone".

Electric cars are probably the one thing that isn't totally insane he's doing, because just about anyone is going to tell you that eventually electric cars will become the standard. (Though I think Hydrogen is likely to reach market penetration first) But even then you can see that Tesla is mostly a presentation over function luxury vehicle. They've got all that touchscreen and smart car crap that is flashy and feels "futuristic" to distract you for the problems the cars have in terms of efficiency and cost.

[–]hfxB0oyA 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Robots? Yes. Humans? Not sure the tech will be good enough in our lifetime to keep people alive for a year in deep space.

[–]SMCAB 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yes, Elon Musk can drive into the desert just like anyone else.

[–]Titanic 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yes. And I don't care, the place is a hell hole.

[–]Jiminy 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

No humans can't survive space it'll just be robots colonizing

[–]ActuallyNot 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

We can hope.

[–]gloomy_bear 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Doubt it

[–]fschmidt 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Only in his dreams

[–]Brewdabier 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Mush yes within 10 years, NASA well if we give them billions every year for the next 30 years.