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A place to predict future events, and make non-monetary bets on future occurences.
Make a post about anything you think will happen in the future. Making a prediction that turns out to be accurate may get you recognized with an announcement (if you're interested).
Including a specific date, year, or condition the prediction will happen by is not required, but highly recommended.
Relevant links:
http://longbets.org/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
My prediction if Trump wins vs if Biden wins
submitted 4 years ago by Aureus from self.PredictTheFuture
My predictions if Biden wins:
There will be a faux, forced sense of "unity" between the left, liberals, and moderates. Nobody will get what they want - liberals and moderates will get some shitty authoritarian far-left policies, while leftists will get more of the same capitalist policies and endless wars in the Middle East.
There will be no lasting conservative resurgence or gains in power. Biden winning will not flip a switch and magically cause conservatives to wake up. The most we might see is Tea Party 2.0, maybe not even that. (Boomers rioting, spergouts, and false flags do not count towards a "lasting conservative resurgence" by definition.)
The Lincoln Project RINOs will declare victory and attempt a takeover of the GOP. Since ground-level American conservatives follow the GOP's lead, even they will come to believe Trump went "too far". The average conservative will grow warmer to RINO pro-war and anti-protectionist policies, believing that these are the only ways to win.
Biden will advance at least one catastrophic far-left policy, such as censorship or gun control. This will be done competently enough that there will be no serious conservative pushback, so the people will just lose power and make no gains.
My predictions if Trump wins:
Conservatives and moderates will still be able to organize and build power.
Bernie supporters will be vindicated; progressives will be pissed at Trump, but not as pissed as they are at the DNC establishment. The Democrat party will undergo something like a schism.
America First policies will be vindicated in conservative and moderate circles. They will be seen as winning policies and core organizing principles for decades to come, both politically and culturally.
Pro-war, anti-protectionist Lincoln Project RINOs will be humiliated and seen as losers. So will their policies. Similar RINOs will be mocked and kept out of cultural and political power as much as possible.
No catastrophic far-left policies will be implemented, excepting a situation where the Democrats end up with majorities in the House and Senate.
[–]magnora7 7 insightful - 2 fun7 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 2 fun - 4 years ago (5 children)
Here's my prediction if Trump wins:
mass protests that eventually die down after a couple months
4 more years of what we've had already
he leaves office without issues and a democrat wins in 2024
Here's what I think if Biden wins:
Trump will say it's voter fraud and may fight it
Mass protests that eventually die down after a couple months, depending on how hard Trump fights it
But I think there's like a 95% chance Trump will win. Incumbents almost always get re-elected, and Biden is a terrible candidate. Unless the whole stock market crashes hardcore in the next 3 months, then I'm pretty sure Trump will be re-elected. So I kind of expect the DNC and co to try everything they can to temporarily crash the stock market, to make Trump look bad, to prevent his re-election. Because in their minds, a couple of months of stock market crashes is better than 4 more years of Trump. But I think this will backfire, and it will be a close election but Trump will win again.
That's my prediction.
[–]JasonCarswell 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun - 4 years ago (0 children)
Spot on.
I also think they're gonna crash the market again after he wins if they don't do it before, plus unleash more troops in stages to deal with the escalating manufactured crises. Children Of Men comes to mind.
[–]72ndGender 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - 4 years ago (2 children)
The democrat will also be a far leftist, and likely a woman of color. They probably already have the candidate picked out and preparing for campaigning. We just don't see it since the preparation isn't televised.
Also, I think the stock market will crash after Trump gets reelected. It's being artificially kept alive, but after elections, there will be no reason to keep it pumped.
[–]Rubyredpython 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun - 4 years ago (1 child)
I can see Michelle Obama running or one of the woc mayors/governors that has been getting a lot of attention lately.
[–]72ndGender 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - 4 years ago (0 children)
Definitely.
[–]FediNetizen 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun - 4 years ago (0 children)
excepting a situation where the Democrats end up with majorities in the House and Senate.
Well they already have a commanding house majority. A senate majority is also seeming likely based on the seats up for re-election this year. That being said, they're unlikely to get the veto-proof majority that would be needed to push through any real legislation with Trump in the white house.
Trump, however, is in a precarious position right now. Biden is polling ahead by about 8 points nationally, slightly over twice the 3.8 point lead Clinton had in the polls going into election night. When all votes were tallied, her actual lead in the popular vote was about 2 points, but because she lost with key demographics she ended up losing the election. However, if Biden carries that 8 point lead into election night, he's going to win handily.
[–]StarsOverStalingrad 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun - 4 years ago (2 children)
How important was the internet for the original tea party? I could see social media censorship being a big obstacle for any sequel.
[–]Aureus[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun - 4 years ago (1 child)
This is why I urge everyone to talk to their neighbors, check out local conservative or Republican clubs, and in general reconnect with their community.
Relying too much on the Internet is a big mistake.
[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - 4 years ago* (0 children)
Thanks. WE ONLY hire friends, e.g. . RL-friends that are approved by our high council.
Its very easy to pull people into your (soon to be decentralized) secured social network on your intranet (bc. the code is completely free and it was easier to setup than i thought), once you are paying them. I was even asked, if i could open it for non-employees but i'm not so far at this time. Maybe i do it, once i've implemented another system into ours that guarantees a third layer of security without any need for cloud-firecracker-flare.
The real fun factor for me in this is that ppl. really believe they aren't working, when they're bouncing some really nice ideas in this system.
Last but most def. not least: There is just no need for any ticket system.
[–]JasonCarswell 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun - 4 years ago (0 children)
What about the corporatocracy and all the things they agree about? ie. COVID, vaccines, no healthcare, fucking the poor, etc.
[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - 3 years ago (0 children)
Congrats, basically on target!
[–]magnora7 7 insightful - 2 fun7 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 2 fun - (5 children)
[–]JasonCarswell 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun - (0 children)
[–]72ndGender 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - (2 children)
[–]Rubyredpython 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun - (1 child)
[–]72ndGender 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - (0 children)
[–]FediNetizen 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun - (0 children)
[–]StarsOverStalingrad 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun - (2 children)
[–]Aureus[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun - (1 child)
[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - (0 children)
[–]JasonCarswell 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun - (0 children)
[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun - (0 children)