I get this at work and thought I'd share. Easy to read analysis of the Fed's update (we are living in La La Land):
Just past 1:00 CDT today, the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) released a statement after the conclusion of its scheduled two-day meeting. I will cut to the quick: the Fed surprised no one by not doing anything, really. It reiterated its current monetary policy, and essentially vowed to keep the foot on the gas for as long as it deems economically necessary. If the committee members' 'dot plots' mean anything, it appears the Fed doesn't plan on making any substantive adjustments prior to the end of the calendar year, at the very least. As I type this today, the over/under, if you will, for the next rate hike would seem to be at the end of 2023...if that.
Let's just say the powers that be plan on keeping the proverbial punch bowl full of money for a while yet. That is all you really need to know for cocktail party conversation.
With that said, I personally found it surprising the Fed seemed so sanguine about recent increases in commodities' prices due to supply chain bottlenecks and a weaker US dollar. In fact, the only mention of inflation, of any kind, was the following: "Inflation continues to run below 2 percent." Hmm. I suppose inflation is where you want to look for it.
Regardless, there is an old expression in the investment industry: "don't fight the Fed." That basically means when the Fed is showering the markets with cash, you don't ask too many questions and grab as much as you can. Something about looking gift horses in the mouth and all of that. Conversely, when the Fed is taking liquidity out of the markets, don't stick your head in the sand. That is the power the central bank of the world's leading economy has.
In conclusion, accommodative monetary and fiscal policies should be good for near and mid-term economic activity. We can debate longer-term issues and inflationary pressures at a later date. Intuitively, 'we' will have to pay for all of this largesse at some point in the future (hopefully distant), and in some manner (hopefully as painless as is possible).
However, at present, I have a punch cup I need to fill. Would you like a glass?
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