For the past 3 halvings, a bull market starts a while afterward and seemingly lasts until late-December of the following year. Each time, BTC's price rises and plateaus 3 times until reaching its peak of many times its previous pre-bull-market mid-range value.
At the July 9, 2016 halving, BTC is $ 648. It peaked at $ 20,089 in the following bull market. During this bull market, BTC experienced plateaus at (roughly) $ 1,200 (March 2017), $ 2,500 (June 2017), $ 3,750 (September 2017), $ 8,000 (November 2017) before peaking in mid-December of that year. From halving to peak, 17½ months. Price increase factor: 31.
At the November 28, 2012 halving, BTC is $ 12.25. It peaked at $ 1,140 in the following bull market. During this increase in value, BTC experienced plateaus at (roughly) $ 49 (March 2013), $ 98 (July 2013), $ 200 (October 2013) before peaking in early December of that year. From halving to peak, 12 months. Price increase factor: 93.
From these patterns, we can guess the following: the bull markets seem to get longer, and trading ranges too. Intra-bull-market corrections and drawbacks grow more pronounced as the asset grows in maturity, market capitalization, institutional involvement and a more widespread awareness of its existence. Also, its leaps in price seem to decrease in magnitude as time wears on.
Price increase factors from the bull market seem to follow a declining trend. If we complete this series: 93, 31, X, Y, Z we can guesstimate that the total 2020 halving bull market of BTC might see its price increase by only a factor of 10. And 3 for the next halving. And not at all for that of 2028. We'll see, won't we?
At the latest halving, in May 2020, BTC was roughly $ 8,700. If we factor 10 times that value, it should be expected that BTC will trade at least once at $ 87,000 or higher. By December? This seems unclear (obviously) but given that all previous halving bull markets have ended in December, it makes sense to expect this current bull market would last at least until late December 2021.
For these reasons, my best guesstimate of the current BTC situation is that it will triple by year's end 2021, at which point the bull market might be over.
there doesn't seem to be anything here