Sorry for the dearth of posts of late. I have been a bit busy with studies, work and gym.

Recently Russian MoD released casualty estimates for its own forces, LNDR forces, and the Ukrainians.

For Russian forces: 1351 killed and 3825 wounded.

For Donbas forces: 600+ killed and 2500 wounded.

Russian and allied forces in total seem to have lost 2000 KIA and 6500 WIA. A total of about 8500 casualties. This amounts to about 4% of pre-war strength.

For Ukraine, the losses are far greater. Russian MoD estimates 14,000 dead and 16,000 seriously wounded with as many as 2000 others made POWs. This amounts to about 11% of pre-war strength.

A four times casualty ratio for Ukraine is believable considering that the Russians have air and artillery superiority. They've launched as many as 1200 land-attack missiles since the start of the war.

This includes:

Kalibr missiles from ships in the black and Caspian seas.

Iskander missiles launched from ground launchers in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.

Kh-55 missiles launched by Tu-95 and Tu-22M bombers.

2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were probably launched by Mig 31 BM aircraft.

And possibly Kh-59 air-launched cruise missiles from Su-34s, Su-30SMs, and Su-24s.

The Russians have also really stepped up artillery attacks on the AFU. There are hundreds of videos of Russian artillery using drones to direct accurate fire on Ukrainian artillery and vehicles. The laster guided Krasnopol-M fired from the Msta-B and 2S3 howitzers have enacted a devastating toll when used in conjunction with drones like the Orlan-10 and Orion.

Foreign legion woes

The Ukrainian losses don't include the foreign mercenaries who have suffered devastating losses. The attack on Yavoriv base alone killed 267 foreign mercenaries and 400-500 were seriously wounded. An entire battalion's worth of troops was wiped out in a single strike.

Thanks to the desire for Updoots on Reddit, a number of retards uploaded videos and the Russians geolocated them their position and launched airstrikes against them.

The Russians recently launched strikes on two other mercenary bases. Apparently, 200+ Redditors were killed near Kiev when the Ukrainians dispatched them to be meatshields.

The Russians estimate that there are 6,595 foreign mercenaries still remaining in Ukraine. The quality of these mercenaries is debatable.

The organic volunteers were often veterans but they proved to be of little use. They either had to bring their own kit and if they didn't, they were given shitty AKMs with little ammo and sent to the Kiev meat grinder.

However, it is possible that the CIA, Mossad, and MI6 are sending well-armed and well-organized mercenary units into Ukraine as well. This is merely speculation on my part and so far we've seen nothing of the sort. But it could very well be the case.

Air situation

After a really poor performance in the first 12 days, the Russian air force has improved tactics and has not lost a single jet in the last 14 days of the war. They have abandoned suicidal low flying attack runs and have instead switched to high altitude bombing with guided bombs and missiles.

Ukrainian air defenses have also largely been destroyed or relegated to the far reaches of Western Ukraine. This has given Russia great freedom of action in the air. Russian helicopters continue to exact devastating tolls.

Losses from MANPADs have also disappeared. Russian helicopters either fly at night to take advantage of the lack of thermal sights, or they fly close to the ground or they use DIRCM and other ECM to defeat MANPADs.

The Ukrainian air force has disappeared from the sky. No sorties have been seen for the last week or two. Perhaps the last few fighters are hiding in Western Ukraine. In any case, they have no ability to operate as they don't have any functioning air bases left.

The toll on Ukraine

Ukraine has been severely weakened from a material perspective by the Russian air and missile campaign.

The Russians have destroyed:

16 airbases.

30 major defense industrial plants that accounted for 68% of repair and maintenance capacity.

39 major arsenals that housed 70% of Ukrainian military stocks.

1, 054,000 tons of ammunition.

1,587 out of 2,416 tanks, IFVs, and APCs that were present at the start of the war.

112 out of 152 planes.

75 out of 149 Helicopters

148 out 180 long and medium ranged SAMs

117 out of 300 Radar stations

163 out of 535 MLRS

636 out of 1509 Howitzers and Mortars

1,354 military vehicles

246 drones.

The Ukrainians at the start of the war had 36 TB-2 Bayraktar drones and Turkey gave them two resupplies. The Russians claim to have destroyed 75 TB-2 Bayraktars in total.

Judging by the lack of any authentic Bayraktar footage from the last 10 days, I think it's safe to say that all the Bayraktars are destroyed. Turkey can't produce them as fast as Russia is destroying them.

They have proven wholly ineffective against Russian air defenses.

According to the Russians, all 24 Ukrainian maneuver formations have been hit and Ukraine has no organized reserves left.

This is believable considering the scale of Ukrainian losses. Ukrainians seem to be sending Redditors to hold the Kiev front and relieving troops to form a line near Pavlograd.

The strategic situation

Ukraine does not seem to have much offensive capability left due to the mass destruction of its armored force. The continuous Russian strikes on fuel depots have left the AFU critically short on fuel. It only has the fuel to carry out defensive actions and patrols. It's critically short on ammunition as well as it cannot produce ammunition for its Soviet artillery pieces and the old Soviet stock is either depleted or destroyed.

The best formations of the Ukrainian army were near the Donbas contact line at the start of the war: 60,000 troops. They're down to less than 50,000 now and is on the brink of encirclement. With the fall Izyum, the road to Slavyansk is open.

The Northern flank of the Donbas group is rapidly folding and so is the South. Donetsk forces are pushing up from the South. However, a huge Russian force, nearly 25,000 men are engaged in arguably the most decisive engagement of the war-the siege of Mariupol.

Once Mariupol falls, the Russian forces there will be freed and they'll be able to attack from the south and cut off a huge Ukrainian pocket in the line of contact.

As of writing, 93% of Luhansk is liberated and 54% of Donetsk has been liberated.

The Russians control roughly 30% of Ukraine. In the Southwest, the Russians are making slow progress towards Zaporizhia.

By and large, the Russian advance has stalled due to the lack of troops. The front line is huge, and the Russian forces have become too dispersed. Putin recently agreed to Russian volunteers and hopefully they will relieve Russian army units from guard duty in cities and allow them to move to the front and resume the offensive.

However, the decisive event in undergoing in Mariupol. The fall of Mariupol would free 25,000 Russian troops and allow them to encircle and destroy the Ukrainian Donbas army. The destruction of the Donbas group would free 70,000-80,000 Russian and Donbas troops and allow them to overrun all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper and shorten the line. This in turn will free up more troops to take Zaporizhia and Dnipro.

The fall of Mariupol will have a huge domino effect.

In addition, the mass of the Ukrainian army has been fixed in 4 locations: Kiev, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and the Donbas. The destruction of fuel depots and Russian air superiority makes it near impossible to move forces out of these regions. It makes it easier for the Russians to encircle and destroy them one at a time when they manage to get the spare divisions.

Stalingrad 2022 edition

Mariupol is the decisive battle of the war. Taking Mariupol would unite the southern front with the Donbas and Russia proper. It would also provide a port to which Russia could send supplies and from there they could supply the army in the Donbass and Kherson by rail.

Even more, the siege of Mariupol is tying up a large number of Russian troops.

Forces involved in the siege are:

150th Motor Rifle division

810th naval infantry brigade

5000 Chechens

Troops from the Donetsk republic

Elements from the 41st combined arms army.

Altogether, a force that is 25,000-30,000. And this large force has caught a rich bounty in Mariupol.

Encircled in Mariupol are 4 elite Ukrainian brigades:

The Azov Regiment (this is their HQ)

36th Naval infantry brigade

10th Air Assault brigade

12th operational brigade.

Not confirmed but it may also contain elements of the 58th Mechanized infantry brigade.

Altogether, the pocked holds 10,000-15,000 troops. The Russians claim that there were 14,000 troops at the start of the siege and now it's been reduced to less than 7000.

The Russians have captured more than 80% of the city and have taken the city council and prosecutor's office.

Azov took extreme casualties in the last two days and now effectively ceases to exist as a single unit.

The fall of the city will be a huge morale boost to Russia and a huge morale blow to Ukraine. The loss of 4 entire brigades, the complete destruction of Azov, and the loss of a major port city will weigh heavily on the Ukrainian mind.

Improvement in Russian tactics

The Russians have largely taken off the kid gloves and are now attacking the Ukrainian military directly. They're attacking barracks with the aim of maximizing casualties and breaking Ukrainian morale and fighting capacity.

The supply situation has improved as has the protection of convoys. Russian losses have dramatically fallen since March 3rd as the rapid advance has stalled and they've taken a more methodical approach.

Russian air tactics have seen a great improvement as well. The initial rapid advance and fuck ups are over.

However, rapid advance can be assumed to restart after the Donbas falls.