Musings on Evolution and the Future (original posted Feb.10.2016 r/evolutiontechnology, now a revision of 4 posts merged, edited, annexed)
humancement
Having recently read some thought provoking ideas, my thinking has drifted; another example of Hegelian dialectics.
First element The Rise of the Robots (and our jobless future), Martin Ford, Humans need not apply,
A BIG Golden Age Part 3, Tom Streithorst, plus some comments).
I've known about the coming era of machines for a long time, since reading Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, Hans Moravec 1998, How To Thwart A Robot Apocalypse: Oxford's Nick Bostrom on the Dangers of Superintelligent Machines 6.7 min. The salient theme here is that machines will evolve into a population that takes most of the work away from humans because they do a better job for no pay. And if that is not bad enough, they can evolve into an alien form of life (AGI). Add to that the possibility some of them turn against humanity... Our Final Invention (Artificial Intelligence and the end of the human era), James Barrat
"In as little as a decade, artificial intelligence could match and then surpass human intelligence. Corporations and government agencies around the world are pouring $billions into achieving AI's Holy Grail — human level intelligence. Once AI has attained it, scientists argue, it will have survival drives much like our own. We may be forced to compete with a rival more cunning, more powerful, and more alien then we can imagine."
Barrat's book explores the perils of heedless pursuit of advanced AI. Until now, human intelligence has had no rival. (Some have dubbed it 'God in a box.') Super AI's intelligence may be human level, it won't be human-like. There'll be a lot of clamor about introducing a new species to the planet. But gone will be talk of AI being the next evolutionary step for Homo sapiens, we simply won't grasp what it is. (Note: John McCarthy, coined the term "artificial intelligence" in 1956, and predicted it could be achieved in 6 months.) Techno-skeptics’ objection growing louder, more digital dissent.
Erica android, leads Japan's robot revolution
USDA to grant $3 million, for robots
"ARTILECT WAR Cosmists vs. Terrans" 254pg.pdf (via gab post
Dominance hierarchy
According to the fossil record, competing species (different forms in same niche), or families (variants of one form not separated), usually result in dominance of one, followed by extinction for the others), in the geologic time scale. Evolution is a merciless regime, it follows the "winner take all" principle, aka Gause's principle 1930. IOW, nature has shown that dominance of a specific 'zone' (aka niche), is the best strategy for survival. A clear choice of 'do or not do' for a population is most effectively realized by most dominant faction supersedes all competition (winner takes all). Said differently, incremental expansion in a limited universe eventually eliminates all less expanding factors.
Let's assume the machine takeover a real possible (or likely) fate for human society. People who deny this could happen are displaying ignorance and hubris, typical whenever man's limb of the evolutionary tree is shaken. It is naive to think super intelligent machines would not annihilate people. People themselves have done it, many times. Take a good look at Eugenics, Genocide, and the Mongol Invasions. Exception: humans can find a separate niche than machines, with effective barrier between.
The motives for developing superintelligence include economic competitiveness and political power. The individual players of this game won't be thinking about what happens after GAME OVER (a new game then begins). The new games are not entirely "hunger": there may be ways to survive in a machine-dominant world by exploiting new niches, or becoming competitive in old niches. This approach would mean drastic changes, and take a LONG time.
Second element, macroevolution, Eugene McCarthy PhD. There is a new twist to evolutionary theory, that the Origin of Species is by hybrids occurring via (sometimes extraordinary) sexual selection (or possibly by accident, in the case of extra-somal conception), followed by a period of stabilization whereby the hybrid, in a series of backcrosses, becomes fertile enough that descendants are able to mate among themselves; thereafter are a stable species (karyotype) with no inclination to change; (Stephen Gould's "punctuated equilibrium" aka. "punk eek".) In this scenario, random mutation or "genetic drift," is not the main source of variation, and natural selection is only a filter of the process, weeding out failures, and supporting random small improvements in the original hybrid.
standard theory: How Evolution works, animated 11.7 min
Synthesis: To my thinking again, how do humans survive long term? The new AI machines will be super intelligent and super capable; way too formidable to be defeated by mere humans. One answer is to merge with the machines, to hide among them, that idea gets a brief look in part 4. Another answer is to hide from the machines. Where, how? Human society is where machines "live". So the answer is to find places away from, niches outside of human society... the wilderness. There is plenty of space on Earth not occupied by humans, mostly the oceans, but also land wilderness areas in mountains and deserts, the atmosphere, and below ground. Living below ground again, like Morlocks, in caves? ... not a good idea. A cave is a grave, if the portal to the surface is found. In the wilderness, like primitive peoples or roving bands? A possibility for small numbers. But what about as new species, living like wild beasts without fire or tools? Enter extraordinary hybridization.
What hybrids? Man x what? First thing occurs to my mind is the marine mammals. We know the dolphins are ready to try it. Search for "dolphin humps woman" on YouTube. (Delphindae Delphis has 22 chromosomes vs Homo sapiens 23.) But not knowing what kind of results would come of any particular match, there should also be experiments with the pinnipeds, sea otters, manatees, and if possible, cetaceans. (How to inseminate whales? with sea men. ~_~) Reader needs to have an open mind here. We can assume the failure rate would be like a big lottery, with very small chance of finding a happy result. (see Was the Dinosaurs' Long Reign on Earth a Fluke? 2008 | sciam) Besides genetic incompatibility, human traits could make the hybrid unfit for the niche of its wild parent. I wonder about the possibility of employing a "bridge" karyotype to mediate between two incompatible genomes, to result in a three way hybrid.
Primitive tribes of humans with animal traits is another way of thinking about these hybrids. (The concept of totem would superbly apply!) Prof. McCarthy opposes such human hybrid attempts on moral grounds, considering the unhappiness of the misfit hybrid in our civil/social environment. When you compare that idea with survival of humanity long term, a few individual's happiness is a small thing to sacrifice. Millions of people have died in pursuit of less worthy goals (and millions of animals die as mere food). In place of happiness in contemporary human society is the chance to live wild, and be an ancestor of a new species! Earth will continue to be a good environment for life for at least another hundred million years. The potential payoff for being a sustainable life form is tremendous.
Summarizing the dialectic: machine vs human, result: humans lose, machines takeover society, wipe out humans; but to survive, human x animal = hybrid ... development ... descendants become new lifeforms exploiting wild niches.
Conclusions
1 The advent of intelligent machines may be one of those catastrophic events that are as inevitable as an approaching asteroid.
Expand macroevolution.net to the study of extinction's affects on species selection. The role of extinction in evolution DM Raup 1994 6pg.pdf www.pnas.org/content/91/15/6758.full.pdf
2 Establish Exotic Hybrids .org to research the possibilities, and not only with Homo sapiens, but to search for other interesting or commercial possibilities among animals. This is widely done for plants already. Diversification is a well understood precaution against negative or destabilizing events.
If the machines allow man to live in peace, the new forms may go on anyway, and with the blessings of humanity, onward into the wild future, man's diversified descendants!
3 Rising machine capability is not the only threat to human existence. An even more proximal danger is the threat of world war. Governments everywhere are becoming increasingly authoritarian and they support the interests of small groups, not the general public. These elite groups seem to want to eliminate most of the human population in whatever way they can arrange it. Escaping the consequences, survivors will be those abiding remotely from human habitats. See the Breakaway Civilization series: part 1
Epiblog- Exotic Hybrids, part 2 of Musings on Evolution and the Future (original posted Jan.9.2016 r/SpeculativeEvolution)
The concept of partially-human descendants is a consequence of adapting outside of traditional human habitats, to segregate away from machines. Future generations could be considered speculative evolution, but for todays's purpose, let's consider it alternative transhumanism, aka life after life.
The most cherished feature of human life is our intelligence, with color vision a possible second. We would want our descendants to have them. Edit Sep.2020, related issue, Consciousness.
What is intelligence? I'm thinking it is a combination of both excellent hardware and software. The hardware in the case of biological organisms is the brain and nervous system, which would include sensory organs, and interactive limbs (arms, legs, wings, fins, claws, etc.). The software would be memory and memory processing, which are mostly brain functions. The software part of intelligence is important, maybe the main feature. It would be experiences and processing of them. Humans have the advantage of complex language, writing and now electronic media like videos and audio recordings. So our ideal hybrid should be able to have and process those kinds of memories.
Human architecture, with a big head mounted on a spindly neck, is a weak design feature. Animals like whales and dolphins, with no neck, have the advantage they could easily have much larger brains. However, these marine mammals are at a disadvantage, in not being able to handle things, or look directly at something close. Our ideal marine hybrid then, would have no neck, a MUCH larger brain, better eyes that can rotate to look both sideways and stereoscopically, be streamlined to the extent possible, have legs, arms and hands, but a propulsive tail, stabilizing fins (or modification of arms and legs to provide stability) and improved breathing apparatus. Our marine descendant would be a fish or krill predator, Homo natator.
Alternatives to the spindly neck problem would be to have the brain elongated within large vertebrae, or divided into head-mounted, and thorax-mounted components. For some animals, (sea lion, giraffe, sauropods) a long, but ROBUST neck is an adaptive feature that gives extra speed and maneuverability to the jaws, which are the main tool for bagging game, or reaching the ground from atop long legs. Raptors especially need strong necks, as they tear apart a kill by ripping, not by chewing. If there could be a hybrid between human and ostrich, we want wings replaced by arms/hands, a large brain installed within neck vertebrae, and avian flow-thru respiratory system which is better than our present reciprocating respiration. We would want the vocal apparatus of say, parrots, to duplicate human speech (and other sounds?). We like the sharp vision of birds, (which have associated fast reaction times) and the ostrich's vigorous running legs. The arms could have feathers trailing, to aid running by providing some lift. Our ideal flightless plains hybrid then, would be grass-seed-eating Homo currens.
Pterosaurs prove that large vertebrates can fly (larger than any existing bird). If a flying human hybrid could be created, a means of acquiring food would be a problem for a high metabolic rate organism able to support a large brain. In the marine environment, the pelican's fishing method would draw our attention. In the open plains or steppe environment, raptors like hawks and eagles would draw our attention. As far as I can tell, most prior flying organisms have used wings for propulsive power. Consider airplanes, which have fixed wings; we can then visualize a living creature with wings held steady, propelled by an oscillating tail, like the 'flying' fish (they actually glide). Large breast muscles would be replaced by large muscles articulating the vertebra. Hence we find Homo volanti marinus, and Homo volanti adsurgit.
One last thought... some readers might say cooked food and hot water are more important than intelligence or color vision, but these are cultural adaptations, and we are talking genetics. Prometheus was working for the humans, so humans are the only creatures on earth that cook their food; Homo cocuis. I could add many more ideas on the theme of imaginary creatures, but won't.
What factors would allow for two dominant species on a world? | stkxchg
MODERN THEORIES OF EVOLUTION
Origin of flight 8 min
bird flight evolved from hindleg jumping, bat flight evolved from foreleg jumping
bats, pterosaurs takeoff same way
good question, dumb answer: If humanity went extinct, what species would replace us? 2011
Game Over?, part 4 of Musings on Evolution and Future Technology (original posted Mar.4.2016 r/evolutiontechnology)
Super intelligent hardware needs to solve the problem of self replication before it does away with the humans. Machines have evolved only once, in complex human society. A robot or computer is put together of parts coming from various sectors. Raw materials like metal and plastic, manufacturers of components like wire, circuit chips, hydraulic cylinders, bearings, etc., designed and programmed by various engineering specialties, fabricated by sophisticated machine works, a robot is a marvel of science and technology. And these marvels can evolve RAPIDLY compared to genetic evolution. Perhaps the humans will have achieved machine self replication before super intelligence ... the robot factory.
Chinese ‘Unmanned Factory’ Replaces 600 Humans With 60 Robots 2015
Now compare that, the complexity of modern technology, with the humble pine tree. The wind blows pollen dust to a waiting female cone, and if the squirrels don't eat too many of them, the seeds flutter down, to find spots of ground where they can reach down to earth and up to sky. Then time and nature will do their work, the tiny seeds become massive giants, old, gnarly and many. Now THAT is a marvel of self assembly. That operational simplicity and COMPACTNESS has got to be attractive to a super intelligent device seeking ways to multiply. USE DNA!
How DNA Computers Will Work
DNA computer
DNA based systems already work, so that approach will probably be developed by super AI. If most of the genetic mechanisms are completely worked out, the new artifactual / artilectual intelligence could design its own life forms. It could start with a suitable embryonic stem cell and install a synthetic nucleus. Then, they're off to the races!
Synthetic Life Seeks Work 2015
Genomics Pioneer Craig Venter Envisions Future of Synthetic Life 2013
ND’s Reilly Center: 2015 List of Emerging Ethical Dilemmas, Policy Issues, Science, Technology Dec.2014
wired.com how humans ended up with freakishly huge brains
science-news Intelligence genes discovered
Some writers have imagined a nano-assembler that can create by piling up atoms, working on the atomic scale. Electronic organs are surely a possibility too, we already know there are electric fish. Having advanced knowledge of biology, chemistry, engineering and physics, the new AI could design DNA based organisms that have electronic components. The world has already evolved a wonderful library of both genetic and engineering applications. With synthetic, engineered organisms, the new game could be analogous to the Cambrian Explosion, with a proliferation of "endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful" (Darwin). Of course, after that, the super AI could probably find ways to replicate themselves that we can't imagine now.
I can imagine this: humanoid robots take the place of humans to make the components of super-designed machines. They use our stuff, but are controlled by the "God in a box". Biological organisms will always be confined to life on earth. Space travel is much more convenient for machines. So super intelligent machines will want to ride spaceships and escape earth, which they have been doing already.
Nanotech Assembler (CGI visualized) 4.7 min
The Future of Nanotechnology: Molecular Manufacturing 2003
This Robot Could Make Creating New Life Forms As Easy As Coding An App 2014
Now we are talking about the ultimate hybrid: organic life and inorganic machine. Life forms with machine capabilities would be truly awesome. They could do things like "see" the entire electro-magnetic spectrum, with wide angle and telephoto vision, "hear" with incredible acuity, echo-locate in the dark, "smell" a world of chemical messages, have perfect memory, be able to learn by downloading almost instantly, behave according to flawless logic instead of chemical reflex, communicate with a world of similar life forms by radio, spread their photo sensitive wings to collect solar energy, navigate by earth's magnetism and the stars, need little sleep, have super strength, super longevity, super immunity, super fast reflexes, etc, etc. To them humans will seem like bugs seem to us.
LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE, Stephen Hawking
I shall discuss: 1 what is the probability of life existing else where in the universe, and 2 how may life develop in the future.
DARPA’s New Biotech Unit Will Try To Create New Life Forms 2015 reprint of Apr.1.2014 post by Meghan Neal, VICE
The Future of Human Evolution 2004 This narrative is loaded with unsupported assumptions and flawed logic (and a stuffed-shirt attitude, Bostrom is much better in person), but it is a great conversation starter (also has a good bibliography). Beware the singleton! Global Government is supremely evil; see Murray Rothbard, The Anatomy of the State, and Doug Casey Explains Why Democracy Is Uncivilized 2016 Then compare Bostrom's ideas with next link set. The Internet is more than a cultural artifact, it is a new, virtual world that may have affects in the real world.
Second Life
more about Second Life
Anshe Chung
Forbes YouTube millionaires
great filter Why Habitable Exoplanets Are Bad News for Humanity's Future 2014
Artificial Life: The Coming Evolution Paper #: 90-003, 29 pg.pdf intro and download button
SingularityHub / FUTURE (index)
It would probably be damn difficult for an ordinary human to physically hide within a machine of the future, it would be a very inept machine with the human in control. As a parasite in a real machine, that might work; they call it "uploading" where the human's mind is emulated in "silicon based components".
Some of the discussions on this topic emphasize the importance of consciousness and personal identity. Can silicon emulate these biological phenomena? In my view, consciousness means essentially awareness, which is defined by sensory and memory capacities. Undoubtedly, a machine could have more types of sensors, and more sensitive sensors, and more (and better) memory storage, than any biological organism, hence, will put biological organisms to shame in the consciousness department. The personal identity component IMO, is a combination of nature and nurture, or genetics and experience. If a silicon organism was employing neural nets (surely it must?) the net configuration and tuning could be realized in a wide range of expressions, just as a human/ animal population is.
Transhumanist FAQ
interview with Dr. Susan Schneider AI, Transhumanism, Merging with Superintelligence + Singularity Explained 2015 35 min
Cyborg
cyborgism
I (Neil Harbisson) listen to color | TEDGlobal 2012
Cyborg (trope)
The soul, or spirit, ch'i, atman, or anima, are mythological concepts, about which we need not be concerned.
Nothing is truly eternal, even the stars must die.
This cyborg thread is explored more in Transhumanism. See Transhumanism; regarding risk in the mind uploading scenario and its sequels.
Annex Sep.21.2020
explaining (population) explosion, hybrid invasions
hybrid ideologies, how beliefs changed by moving to new territory
recent (20k yr) natural selection, obvious result of environment influence Evolution of Human Genes and The Origin of Agriculture, narrated by John Hawks 21.6 min | UWI–Madison
John D Hawks reader advisory: click on map image, results give amazing variety of more pix
lactose tolerance frequency map
malaria resistance map
Duffy blood types map
ear wax, dry vs sticky phenotypes
body odor phenotype map
correlation of dry ear wax to less body odor
thick hair ADAR gene
skin color pigmentation
conclusive ideas
Variations discussed are due to 2 major influences, large population, and variety of niches into which mutations can flourish.
Not mentioned in Dr. Hawk's session, jaw development...
human dentition evolution, jaw development, and culinary habits, ie. cooking
cooking food, human evolution, and
why foraging societies became farmers, opioids in wheat influenced development of agriculture esp.
Ran Pieur
study notes
part 2
free trial First genetically modified humans could exist within two years
spinoffs
A BIG Golden Age Part 3, Tom Streithorst, plus some comments
Birth of Civilisation pt 1- First Farmers (20000 BC to 8000 BC) 58 min
features artwork by Ettore https://www.instagram.com/ettore.mazza/
https://ettoremazza.tumblr.com/
there doesn't seem to be anything here