https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.
This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.
Is Kentucky making the same mistake as the cdc and the other states listed in the article?
On the Kentucky covid 19 web page https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19, the “Total Tested” lists PCR (viral tests) vs Serology (antibody tests). The distinction wasn’t made until 5/27/2020 (May 26th vs May 27th). But the “Total Positive” does not list which tests contribute to the lab confirmed numbers, that is a problem. If Kentucky is counting the serology positive tests in the lab confirmed tests, it will give an inaccurate picture of the current state of the virus in Kentucky. In fact, including the serology positive tests will inflate the numbers and make it appear as though there is an uptick in infections, when these tests are actually showing past infections. The Kentucky covid page needs to be updated to make the distinction.
Also, can anyone explain the discrepancy in serology tests between 6/9/2020 and 6/10/2020? There was a steady increase in serology tests until 6/9/2020 reaching 32,753 (6/9). Then on 6/10/2020 the number decreased to 27,948 (6/10), that doesn’t make sense, the number should continue to increase. The number then began to steadily increase again, but not exceeding the value from 6/9/2020 until 6/25/2020, over two weeks later (6/25). That is an extremely odd data anomaly.
TLDR: There are two types of tests, PCR/viral tests for current infections and Serology/Antibody tests for determining if someone has ever had the virus. If we want to get an accurate picture if the number of infections is on the rise, only the PCR positive tests should be used. The Kentucky covid page makes no distinction on which tests contribute to the total positive. Kentucky could be using faulty numbers to make decisions.
Note: If the virus is indeed real, the threat level is way lower than even the flu, no need to lockdown the state.
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