all 11 comments

[–]Dune1032 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

The US will be supplying Ukraine with more ATACMS. This will force Russia to move their supply depots further back making it difficult to sustain an attack. Ukrainian pilots should be trained on the F-16 soon eliminating Russian air superiority. The Russians are not making huge gains as you claim. See https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-forces-make-advances-as-ukraine-awaits-fresh-us-weaponry/ar-AA1nJpXQ You think Russians like fighting for Putin? See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwkIsnTn01E&t=67s 1:38 into video.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

The US will be supplying Ukraine with more ATACMS. This will force Russia to move their supply depots further back making it difficult to sustain an attack.

Russian air defense is more than capable of shooting down anything and everything Ukraine can fire at them, especially ATACMS. Even the dreaded Stormshadows have gone from a serious threat to a minor threat as the Russians have learned how to destroy them. Not every single missile, but enough to prevent Ukraine from doing major damage.

When those ATACMSes get close enough to the front line to actually threaten Russian forces, they will be destroyed, just like the previous batch of ATACMSes.

Ukrainian pilots should be trained on the F-16 soon eliminating Russian air superiority.

The F-16 is not a bad plane at all, and in the hands of capable pilots with many years of experience, they would almost be peer to the Su-35, but in no way is it superior to the Su-35 in combat. The SU-35 has already proven itself to out-class the F-16 in Taiwan. The SU-35 can blind the radar of F-16s, including the much-vaunted AESA, and force the F-16 pilot to retreat with his tail between his legs. The SU-35 is faster, more manoeuvrable, has a longer range and a much higher ceiling, it carries more weapons including potentially hypersonic missiles that the US cannot match. It can engage the F-16 from much further away than the F-16 can engage them back, and it has a smaller radar cross-section than the F-16.

But those F-16s aren't going to survive long enough to face off against SU-35s. They're going to be chewed to bits by Russian missiles long before that. Why do you think the Russians didn't put their pilots in the sky earlier, before they smashed the Ukrainian air defense? The same applies now, but in reverse.

Those Ukrainian F-16 pilots are dead men walking. Poor fuckers 😞

The Russians are not making huge gains as you claim.

Clausewitz on the purpose of war: "The aim of war should be the defeat of the enemy. But what constitutes defeat? The conquest of his whole territory is not always necessary, and total occupation of his territory may not be enough."

Russia is bleeding Ukraine to death, and demilitarising NATO. And they are doing so with remarkably few losses themselves considering the nature of modern war. They have already taken around one fifth of Ukraine's territory, and will take more when Ukraine is depleted of men and munitions.

You think Russians like fighting for Putin?

Ukraine has to send press squads into the streets to literally kidnap any man who is desperate enough to step outside of his house. They are begging the rest of Europe to deport the Ukrainian men who fled the country back. Meanwhile in Russia the army has so many volunteers that they almost don't know what to do with them. Especially after Ukraine started terrorist attacks against Russian towns and civilians. And that doesn't include the non-military volunteers contributing to the war effort.

[–]Smalls 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

You have given reasoning behind your opinions but I find your last one hard to take seriously.

Meanwhile in Russia the army has so many volunteers that they almost don't know what to do with them.

Then why are they increasing the sign-on bonuses and reaching far out into the Russian-controlled territories (and beyond) to find recruits? My sources say that even in Moscow, men do not want to go to Ukraine because they know they will be thrown into the front lines in the classic Russian meat-grinder scenario. Throw bodies at the enemy until they run out of ammo.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

why are they increasing the sign-on bonuses and reaching far out into the Russian-controlled territories (and beyond) to find recruits?

Are they actually doing that?

You'll have to ask them, but if I were to guess probably because they are preparing to take Odessa, and they are expecting France and other NATO countries to escalate by sending troops who they will have to fight.

My sources

Oh yes, the well-known sources "Trust me bro", "I made it up", "Plucked from thin air" and "Pulled out of my arse". Very credible sources. They write for all the major western media companies.

the classic Russian meat-grinder scenario

Yes, the Russian army is the grinder, and the poor Ukrainian slobs are the meat.

[–]Smalls 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

As stated in previous comments some time ago, I have an associate who has dual Russian/Armenian citizenship and is somewhat understanding of the reasoning behind the invasion, even if he doesn't fully agree with it. His parents still live in Moscow. I also am a news junkie, sometimes to the detriment of my natural mental optimism. I see many news sources including official, trusted agencies, along with individual assessments. What is your source?

[–]Dune1032 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Ukraine has already used ATACMS effectively against Russian targets. See https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ukraine-deploys-new-weapon-for-first-time-after-secret-delivery/ar-AA1nAWY4

The F-16 and Su-35 have their own advantages. See https://www.defencestreet.com/sukhoi-su-35-vs-f-16-fighting-falcon/ With the F-16, Ukraine will be able to counter any Russian air threat.

Russia has suffered heavy losses. See https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/ However, just as in World War II Russia knows it has a massive personnel advantage over Ukraine and is willing to sustain heavy casualties. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8fWp-i-BGA&t=11s Ukraine can offset this with superior Western weapons. During the Korean War, UN forces were able to offset China's numerical superiority with superior weapons.

Russians are not eager to fight. See https://www.npr.org/2023/04/13/1169464889/russia-military-draft-ukraine-war

Ukrainians should draft and have countries return men who avoid the draft. If Ukraine have good leaders, troops will fight for each other and their country, although some will have to be forced. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv9XNFpRdhg and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZGSfFFuujw

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Ukraine has already used ATACMS effectively against Russian targets.

Not effectively enough to make a difference to the war.

With the F-16, Ukraine will be able to counter any Russian air threat.

Another in a long line of failed Wunderwaffen which Uke-stans claimed would win the war for Russia.

Russia has total missile domination over Ukraine. They're not going to engage F-16s in one-to-one dogfights, they're going to use their air defense to blow them out of the sky long before the F-16s get close enough to do any damage.

Russia has suffered heavy losses.

This is from the same American source that claims that Ukraine has only suffered 70 thousand casualties. They think you are an idiot.

Ukraine can offset this with superior Western weapons.

The west doesn't have superior weapons, they have fragile, expensive weapons in tiny quantities that need vast amounts of maintenance and even then its only fifty-fifty if they will work in actual combat. Western weapons are designed for selling, not for fighting.

The B-2 Spirit stealth bomber requires 119 hours of maintenance for every hour of flight time, and you better believe that the Russians can defeat the stealth and detect them. Serbia was able to detect the "invisible" stealth F-117 and shoot it down, using ancient Soviet Union radar technology from the 1960s. What the Russians have now is far better. The US air force knows this, and under no circumstances will allow their super-expensive stealth planes near Russian air defence. The F-35 is a piece of over-priced junk, even in peacetime less than half of the planes are in working order at any time. After twenty years of active service the combat record of the F-22 is exactly two Chinese weather balloons.

The reason they have them in tiny quantities is that the west is deindustrialised and can't make munitions in large quantities. The Pentagon has ordered a 500% increase in artillery shell production over the next five years. That means that by 2029 America will be making the same number of artillery shells in a full year as Austria made in a month in 1914 when WW1 broke out. Pathetic.

The UK has said that if they go to war, they only have enough munitions for a week's high-intensity combat.

Russians are not eager to fight.

Source: literally US government funded propaganda from NPR. NPR's CEO is Katherine Maher, a member of the anti-Russia pro-NATO "Atlantic Council" and works for the the US State Department on the Foreign Affairs Policy Board.

Ukrainians should draft and have countries return men who avoid the draft.

This is how popular the war is in Ukraine.

Ukraine has been conscripting people for this war since it started. Literally millions of Ukrainians have fled the country to avoid being drafted, and the army has press gangs literally snatching men off the street. Men are scared to leave home for fear they'll be kidnapped, forced into the army and sent to the front with barely any training to be used as cannon fodder.

[–]Dune1032 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Ukraine has just struck Russian air defences in Crimea with ATACMS. See https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/crimean-air-defenses-hit-by-ukraine-atacms-strike-reports/ar-AA1nOoQY Ukrainians believe that Western weapons are superior to Russian weapons. Seehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0iZYxnBCQk&t=16s and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0Un__ss_ag&t=46s

Russian tactics support the claim that Russian losses are heavy. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwkIsnTn01E 1:38 into video.

Russians also flee the draft. See https://www.npr.org/2023/04/13/1169464889/russia-military-draft-ukraine-war Bring Ukainians back from overseas and they will fight; for their country and each other.

[–]geoferdy 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The Ukrainians could still attack Russian nuclear power plants as the ultimate payback.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Mr. Zelensky will not be getting his 400,000 conscripts

They'll just start conscripting women and 14 year old boys.

"To the last Ukrainian."

[–]jerryk[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

They've already been doing that. They're running out.